Summary:
An advanced earth modeling system for the physical, geochemical, and biological environment of the Gulf of Mexico and overlying atmosphere is a critical tool to help answer the question of whether or how the Macondo 252 (BP) Oil Spill did or will result in large scale perturbations of the NGoM ecosystem structure or function. Implementation of this modeling system requires the coupling of model components for the ocean physics, waves, atmosphere, and marine biogeochemistry.
This earth system simulation tool will be able to support additional modeling components, such as those for hydrology, sediments, higher trophic levels (fisheries), and oil. Coastal and estuarine ocean - atmosphere - biogeochemical modeling studies require boundary forcing for accurate simulation. Although individual model products exist for supplying boundary conditions for the physical variables, no coupled earth system model exists for this purpose, and no biogeochemical variables are routinely available.
This project will develop a modeling system to serve this need for the NGI research community and other user groups. Although clearly a multi-year effort, important advances in the development and application of this system for the Gulf of Mexico and recent BP oil spill can be made in one year. We propose for the Phase 2 of BP-funded research to couple the physical ocean, atmospheric, waves, and oil spill modeling components. The system will be applied to perform hindcasts of the oil spill for model validation, and to yield a better understanding of the scope of impact of the spill. It also builds on the results obtained during Phase I.